（一）將今年視為一個普通的財政年度看待，抑或是跟以前的有明顯分別？
每年，政府也會就香港編寫財政預算案。像其他地方或機構一樣，每審視來年支出時，負責的必會先看去年數字，再決定增加或減少那部份的開支；同樣地，面對收入，他們會增加或減少部份稅收。在好景時，這樣做當然會出現盈餘，相反經濟差時，便會錄得赤字。
今年，財爺已一早表示我們會有一個「可觀」的赤字大概1000億，去年三月底，香港的總財政結餘為8350億，未扣減23-24年度的赤字虧損。
對預算案作少量幅度的增減，對於經濟穩定的時期甚屬正常，但若我們正面臨重大而且是結構性的社會改變，祇作財務及投資上少量幅度的改變未必是最理想。最壞的情況下，亦有機會對將來帶來嚴重的後果。
由於預算案還未公佈，我未知今年財爺會作出的是少量幅度的每處增減，還是較為針對香港今後發展，而作出較為結構性的改變。
今後幾天，我會在此提出一些香港面臨的改變，有關的改變我們亦正共同見証。我誠意地希望您們就我提出的改變提出意見，您或許認為該等改變對香港的未來是微不足道，又或者是對社會及經濟結構有深遠影響。
所有在這系列採用的數字皆取自政府的公開資料。統計署每兩至三年會就香港的人口推算撰寫報告。我會引用2010年7月政府的人口推算報告，來了解當時政府怎樣推算將來；我亦會用最近在2023年8月發表的人口推算報告，分析政府現在的想法。
當我研究有關報告的數據時，腦????湧現一個疑問，究竟我們在選擇政策及作出策略部署時，我們有否認真地運用經過系統收集及分析的數據及推算？
誠言，有不少時候政策的制定和改變會因為某些突發事件，如增加了的學童自殺、商場內的襲擊、學童持續減少、遊客滯留邊境等。但一般而言，穩妥的政策必須建基於事實與推算，而就算政府換屆，有關的政策因有事實作為基礎，亦應得以延續。
上述提及的並非新事。已發展的經濟體均會以事實及推算，作為其政策，甚至其財政預算的基礎，祇是有些地方會做得較為優勝。成功的關鍵在於有否思考事實的改變而引發的後果，及採取最有效的政策應對。
就新一份財政預算案的建議，我不希望像一個坐在實驗室的科學家，從這個試管倒出一些，再加一些到另一個試管去。我會嘗試踏出實驗室，看看香港正在的急速轉變，希望協助政府調出一杯適合香港的雞尾酒。
以往，我較少用英文寫帖文，但對這較寛的話題，我希望能聽取一些在港的非華語居民的意見，所以在今日開始的九篇分析帖文均會有英文譯本。
Post 1: Just another budget year - or something more significant happening?
Every year the Government is conducting an exercise to establish the budget for our city. Since this is an annual exercise the city budget like any budget for a country or a large corporation usually is an exercise in saying: let’s start by looking at our expenses last year and spend a bit more here and a bit less there; and on the revenue side it usually means, let’s do the same as last year with our taxes, increase some taxes here and there, perhaps reduce others. And in good years the difference may be a surplus, and in difficult years, which they are more often than not, there will be a deficit.
For this year the Finance Secretary already told us that we will have again a significant deficit of around $ 100 billion. Which is a big number noting that the Fiscal Reserves of the Government stood at $ 835 billion at the end of March 2023, not reflecting the reduction caused by this year’s budget deficit.
This approach to the budget works well in times where changes are normal, incremental. But in times when changes are big and possibly structural, meaning forever and not only for a short period of time, such an incremental amount to managing our finances and investments may not be ideal in the best case, and very detrimental to our future in the worst case.
Since the budget details have not been revealed yet, I don’t know of course if the approach this year will be more on the incremental side or have more structural changes in it.
Over the next few days I will reflect on some of the changes happening in Hong Kong, which we all are observing and part of, and invite your comments on whether you see them as small or significant, as passing or structural and any thoughts you might have on what they mean for us for the future.
All the figures I will be mentioning regarding population numbers in Hong Kong come from the Government. The ‘Census and Statistics Department HKSAR’ publishes every two or three years a report called ‘Hong Kong Population Projections’. I have used the report issued in July 2010 to get a sense of how the government was imagining the future back then, and also the most recent one, issued in August 2023 to see what the government is forecasting now. These reports also have actual numbers which I have used as well.
While I was studying these statistics and what they meant in the bigger picture, I was wondering whether officials use the facts which are systematically collected and projected by the ‘Census and Statistics Department’ to inform their policy choices and strategic thinking.
From the outside it sometimes seems that our policies are born as a response to sudden events, like an attack in a shopping mall, a school shutting down because of lack of students or tourists suddenly waiting in front of closed borders. If we were to base our policies on facts and projections it would give them a very solid base, which also continues to be relevant when the Government changes. And the new Government would then naturally continue the old policies as long as the facts don’t change. It would give our Government a longer and more secured planning horizon instead of reacting with new policies on the spur of the moment of some new events.
This is of course not a new insight. All developed countries base their policies on facts and projections. Some better than others. The secret sauce is in really thinking about what is the implication of changing facts, and the thinking about the best policy option to respond.
In thinking about the upcoming budget I don’t want to feel like a chemist who is adding a little bit here and taking away a little bit there, but rather step out and see what’s happening outside the laboratory and then see whether we are mixing the right ‘cocktail’.
Finally, most of my posts I only write in Chinese, but for this broader topic I would like to also invite non-Chinese speakers to contribute their views, including from our migrant community. Therefore I will add the English version of the post as well.
每年，政府也會就香港編寫財政預算案。像其他地方或機構一樣，每審視來年支出時，負責的必會先看去年數字，再決定增加或減少那部份的開支；同樣地，面對收入，他們會增加或減少部份稅收。在好景時，這樣做當然會出現盈餘，相反經濟差時，便會錄得赤字。
今年，財爺已一早表示我們會有一個「可觀」的赤字大概1000億，去年三月底，香港的總財政結餘為8350億，未扣減23-24年度的赤字虧損。
對預算案作少量幅度的增減，對於經濟穩定的時期甚屬正常，但若我們正面臨重大而且是結構性的社會改變，祇作財務及投資上少量幅度的改變未必是最理想。最壞的情況下，亦有機會對將來帶來嚴重的後果。
由於預算案還未公佈，我未知今年財爺會作出的是少量幅度的每處增減，還是較為針對香港今後發展，而作出較為結構性的改變。
今後幾天，我會在此提出一些香港面臨的改變，有關的改變我們亦正共同見証。我誠意地希望您們就我提出的改變提出意見，您或許認為該等改變對香港的未來是微不足道，又或者是對社會及經濟結構有深遠影響。
所有在這系列採用的數字皆取自政府的公開資料。統計署每兩至三年會就香港的人口推算撰寫報告。我會引用2010年7月政府的人口推算報告，來了解當時政府怎樣推算將來；我亦會用最近在2023年8月發表的人口推算報告，分析政府現在的想法。
當我研究有關報告的數據時，腦????湧現一個疑問，究竟我們在選擇政策及作出策略部署時，我們有否認真地運用經過系統收集及分析的數據及推算？
誠言，有不少時候政策的制定和改變會因為某些突發事件，如增加了的學童自殺、商場內的襲擊、學童持續減少、遊客滯留邊境等。但一般而言，穩妥的政策必須建基於事實與推算，而就算政府換屆，有關的政策因有事實作為基礎，亦應得以延續。
上述提及的並非新事。已發展的經濟體均會以事實及推算，作為其政策，甚至其財政預算的基礎，祇是有些地方會做得較為優勝。成功的關鍵在於有否思考事實的改變而引發的後果，及採取最有效的政策應對。
就新一份財政預算案的建議，我不希望像一個坐在實驗室的科學家，從這個試管倒出一些，再加一些到另一個試管去。我會嘗試踏出實驗室，看看香港正在的急速轉變，希望協助政府調出一杯適合香港的雞尾酒。
以往，我較少用英文寫帖文，但對這較寛的話題，我希望能聽取一些在港的非華語居民的意見，所以在今日開始的九篇分析帖文均會有英文譯本。
Post 1: Just another budget year - or something more significant happening?
Every year the Government is conducting an exercise to establish the budget for our city. Since this is an annual exercise the city budget like any budget for a country or a large corporation usually is an exercise in saying: let’s start by looking at our expenses last year and spend a bit more here and a bit less there; and on the revenue side it usually means, let’s do the same as last year with our taxes, increase some taxes here and there, perhaps reduce others. And in good years the difference may be a surplus, and in difficult years, which they are more often than not, there will be a deficit.
For this year the Finance Secretary already told us that we will have again a significant deficit of around $ 100 billion. Which is a big number noting that the Fiscal Reserves of the Government stood at $ 835 billion at the end of March 2023, not reflecting the reduction caused by this year’s budget deficit.
This approach to the budget works well in times where changes are normal, incremental. But in times when changes are big and possibly structural, meaning forever and not only for a short period of time, such an incremental amount to managing our finances and investments may not be ideal in the best case, and very detrimental to our future in the worst case.
Since the budget details have not been revealed yet, I don’t know of course if the approach this year will be more on the incremental side or have more structural changes in it.
Over the next few days I will reflect on some of the changes happening in Hong Kong, which we all are observing and part of, and invite your comments on whether you see them as small or significant, as passing or structural and any thoughts you might have on what they mean for us for the future.
All the figures I will be mentioning regarding population numbers in Hong Kong come from the Government. The ‘Census and Statistics Department HKSAR’ publishes every two or three years a report called ‘Hong Kong Population Projections’. I have used the report issued in July 2010 to get a sense of how the government was imagining the future back then, and also the most recent one, issued in August 2023 to see what the government is forecasting now. These reports also have actual numbers which I have used as well.
While I was studying these statistics and what they meant in the bigger picture, I was wondering whether officials use the facts which are systematically collected and projected by the ‘Census and Statistics Department’ to inform their policy choices and strategic thinking.
From the outside it sometimes seems that our policies are born as a response to sudden events, like an attack in a shopping mall, a school shutting down because of lack of students or tourists suddenly waiting in front of closed borders. If we were to base our policies on facts and projections it would give them a very solid base, which also continues to be relevant when the Government changes. And the new Government would then naturally continue the old policies as long as the facts don’t change. It would give our Government a longer and more secured planning horizon instead of reacting with new policies on the spur of the moment of some new events.
This is of course not a new insight. All developed countries base their policies on facts and projections. Some better than others. The secret sauce is in really thinking about what is the implication of changing facts, and the thinking about the best policy option to respond.
In thinking about the upcoming budget I don’t want to feel like a chemist who is adding a little bit here and taking away a little bit there, but rather step out and see what’s happening outside the laboratory and then see whether we are mixing the right ‘cocktail’.
Finally, most of my posts I only write in Chinese, but for this broader topic I would like to also invite non-Chinese speakers to contribute their views, including from our migrant community. Therefore I will add the English version of the post as well.